“Our data demonstrates that 84 per cent of sales can be predicted by all clicks during the 10 month launch cycle,” a new study by Google, Understanding the Modern Gamer, reported. Google achieved this using their chart analysis’ slope to create a model to predict game sales; they found that if a game received 250,000 clicks in the 10 months around launch, it would likely sell between 2 and 4 million units in the first four months after release.
“The study also found that the number of searches happening before a game is even released are up. Last year 4 in 10 game searches happened in the 6 months before launch. In this period they’re mainly hunting down screenshots and video from the publishers. At launch tips become more popular, followed by searches concerning DLC after that.”
Concerning reviews, Understanding the Modern Gamer reported:
“Reviews continue to be in demand even 4 months after release week as some gamers remain undecided.”
Game Industry News stated that even how people are searching is changing. Mobile searches for triple-A titles were up 168 per cent in 2011 compared to the previous year.
“We discovered that 23 per cent of all tips-related searches during launch month and 27 per cent of all tips-related searches during post-launch take place on mobile. Thus, gamers are using mobile devices to locate tips, cheats, hints, and walkthroughs while they are actually playing video games.”
The paper points out that its data is valid because not only do million of gamers use search engines, gamers tend to be more internet savvy, so their searches show an “extraordinarily high level of intention.”
The paper concluded:
“Digital tools, such as search, offer gamers the unique ability to directly reach out to publishers and retailers… Retailers can maximise game sales, from pre-orders to DLC, by delivering key content to gamers at the right moments across multiple devices.”
What do you think of this data – a revelation, or obvious stuff that companies should have done a while ago and will possibly improve Google’s profits? Comment below or at the New Gamer Nation forums.