Continuing with our series of predictions vs reality, today we focus on the Xbox One launch. Right before E3 2013, the staff at New Gamer Nation made some bold claims to predict what will happen with the Xbox console reveal. Now that some time has passed and we have a better idea of what happened, let’s go back and see how we did.
Joe Marchese – Editor in Chief
Original Prediction: “It seems that Microsoft is going to wait until E3 to reveal the console, and their press conference there will focus on the next console. They will show their new line-up that all ties into the new console. E3 2013 will be a non-stop, Xbox next-gen love fest.”
Grade: A
Indeed Microsoft did reveal the Xbox One at E3 2013.
Original Prediction: “GDC was the last opportunity to show the next Xbox, and that didn’t happen; next stop is E3, and that seems the most likely destination. Enough time has passed to get details on the console, controller, and Kinect integration. Basically, we’ll see everything about the console. If Sony releases pricing at E3, Microsoft will too. It will be available Holiday 2013 like the PS4. I would expect the console to run a modified version of Windows 8 and have some cross compatibility with the PC version of Windows 8.”
Grade: B
So Microsoft did talk about the Xbox One in every way detailing the Kinect, controller and console. It did come out Holiday 2013 and Microsoft did reveal pricing. The Xbox One software was not Windows 8 based, but there is some cross compatibility with functions instead of software. All in all, minus points for Windows 8, plus points for everything else.
Original Prediction: “Early reports indicate that the new console will further integrate Kinect into the OS and the gaming experience. This means you need to get ready for more of screaming commands at your console. How far they plan to get into the development still remains a mystery.”
Grade: A
For the most part, this is true. The Kinect is still a big part of the Xbox One despite people’s reactions to the device.
Original Prediction: “I would not expect Microsoft to implement any devices that restrict used game sales. Used games are too important to the business and their business partners to remove from the equation. Sony started the trend by killing the rumors, and I would expect Microsoft to follow suit. The XBLA will probably look a little different, but I would expect it to function as it normally does.”
Grade: A
While this prediction was not correct based on the initial show reveal, it was completely true shortly after Microsoft flopped on the details of the game.
Original Prediction: “Microsoft will continue its trends to market the machine as an entertainment hub that just happens to play games, too. However, I wouldn’t expect any new IPs, just the same ponies that Microsoft has been riding all along. Look for a new Fable game, maybe a new Halo or Gears game. I wouldn’t expect anything playable, but more of a “we are working on it” kind of trailer, similar to the Halo 4 trailer at the end of E3 2012.”
Grade: D
This is where the predictions took a turn for the worse. Yes, the machine was marketed as an entertainment hub, but they did show some new IP like Quantum Leap. Halo didn’t come until this past E3 and Gears is just murmurs at this point.
Overall: B-
Much like his PS4 announcement predictions, the Xbox One predictions were fairly accurate. Nothing was really outside of what was expected, but what was said was mostly true.
Ryan McNeal – Writer
Original Prediction: “I expect that most of the launch titles will be geared toward hardcore gamers for the reason that hardcore gamers are more likely to be early adopters of the system. I also believe that the launch titles will place more of an emphasis on the use of the Kinect.”
Grade: A-
While this prediction is mostly true, especially when it comes to the Kinect, the Xbox One wasn’t initially marketed towards hardcore gamers, it was pushed as a multimedia device. Either way, this gets a solid grade.
Original Prediction: “It’s hard to predict the price point of a console with so little information, but rumors suggest that it will sell for $299. This seems too low to me, I would expect it to be anywhere between $300-$400. The price could also be dependent on what Sony prices it’s next console.”
Grade: F
The PS4 retailed for $400 while the Xbox One retailed for $500. Still too low despite his gut instincts and the prices of the two consoles showed no correlation.
Original Prediction: “As far as hardware and performance are concerned, I think that it will use AMD graphics hardware, two GPU’s one dedicated to games and the other to movies, and blu-ray. The 720 will allow better integration of Windows 8 and Windows RT devices. It will include more advanced voice recognition software than what the current Xbox has.”
Grade: C
This prediction was bold, but the results were mixed. Yes, the One uses AMD hardware and has blu-ray. However, there is only one GPU. The One does allow for better Windows 8 integration, but the voice recognition is still on-par with what the 360 had.
Original Prediction: “Kinect will be a focus on this new system, It will be always online and I’ve been hearing that the 720 might be able to act as a set box top like Google TV. I would like to see that feature included.”
Grade: A
Indeed the Kinect was a focus, initially it did need to be always online and it could act as a set top box. All on the money.
Overall: C
If it wasn’t for the price prediction being wrong, Ryan would have done much better. Either way, a solid prediction set!
Dan Connor – Managing Editor
Original Prediction: “The new Xbox will officially be announced at E3 attempting to take all of the conferences publicity.”
Grade: A
Indeed the next Xbox was announced during E3.
Original Prediction: “During E3, Microsoft will only focus ¼ of its time on the hardcore gamer. The rest of the time will be spent showcasing its family entertainment abilities.”
Grade: A
Yes, the machine was mostly marketed as an entertainment device.
Original Prediction: “Microsoft will showcase its next generation of gaming leading, of course, with a new Halo game that will NOT star Master Chief.”
Grade: F
While this would have been true for this year’s E3, last year’s E3 did not feature Halo.
Original Prediction: “Kinect will have a much larger role in the next Xbox. Kinect will continue to provide gesture and voice commands but will also integrate with cable and satellite providers.”
Grade: A
Indeed the Kinect plays a larger role and does integrate with cable providers for whatever is streamed through the One.
Original Prediction: “Sadly, it will require a constant internet connection.”
Grade: A
Initially, the Xbox One needed to always be online.
Original Prediction: “With its constant internet connection requirements, it will allow used games to be played in order to appease customers.”
Grade: A
Initially this was not true, but shortly after the conference, Microsoft flopped on this feature
Overall: B+
Dan definitely had the best prediction set of the bunch. He was spot on for most of the predictions except for Halo.